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控制人口规模对治理北京“大城市病”有害无益

来源:快乐飞艇_快乐飞艇官网-官方认证 快评社 作者: 梁建章 黄文政

  文丨梁建章(人文经济学会荣誉理事、携程网董事长)

  黄文政(人文经济学会特约研究员)

快乐飞艇  2016nian11yue3ri《beijingribao》baodaoxinshangrendebeijingshidaishizhangcaiqibiaoshi,bixuxiagengdaliqi,caiqugengyoulicuoshijiaqiangrenkoudiaokong;daqiwuranfangzhishiyichanggongjianzhan,bixuzaihenzhuagexiangcuoshiluoshishangjianzhenzhang;yaojiakuaiwushuihelajichulisheshikuailefeiting;yaodalituijinguidaojiaotong、gonggongjiaotonghedaolushudugongchengkuailefeiting,nulihuanjiejiaotongyongdu。

快乐飞艇  haowuyiwen,daqifangzhi、wushuihelajichuliyijijiaotongsheshikuailefeitingdengcuoshidouyouliyuzhilibeijingde“dachengshibing”。dankuailefeitingrenwei“jiaqiangrenkoudiaokong”duizhili“dachengshibing”bujinyouhaiwuyi,erqiezhizaogezhongwentihemaodun。

  一,人口控制能缓解“大城市病”吗?

  qianrenbeijingshizhangwanganshuncengduociqiangdiao“renkoukongzhi”。liru,2014nian3yue,wanganshunshizhangbiaoshi: beijingrenjunshuiziyuanliangjinweishijierenjundesanshifenzhiyi;dianzhuyaokaowaibugongying;shucai、liangshidabufenyouwaibudiaolai。zaizheimeyanjundeziyuanduanqueqingkuangxia,ruguobeijingdechanyecongdiduandaozhonggaoduandouyaozuo,duirenkouyebujiayikongzhi,dachengshibinghuiyuelaiyueyanzhong。

  zaizheizhongsiluxia,beijingderenkoukongzhiyuyanyulie。jinnian10yue,beijingshiyunguanjufujuzhangmarui,zaihuiyingyaoqiuwangyueche“jingrenjingpai”dewentishibiaoshi,beijing“chengshibing”zhuyaoyuanyinzhiyishirenkouwuxuguokuaizengzhang,yanzhongyingxiangshoudouhexingongnengdefahui。erguidingwangyueche“benshihuji、benshicheliang”jiushicongzhili“chengshibing”、shujiefeishoudougongnengdeyaoqiushangkaolvde。

  zheizhongyongcongyezigelaikongzhirenkoudezuofa,bujinshanghailebeijing2000wanshiminzuoweiwangyuecheqianzaiyonghudeliyi,yeshiyizhongzhizaoshehuimaodundehujiqishi。duici,beijingdaxueguojiafazhanyanjiuyuanjiaoshouzhangweiyingrenwei: “wangyuechejianguanbunengmoshiqiongrendequanli,bunengyuqiongrenguoqubuqu,dajiazixikankanneijitiaoguiding,xianchepai、hujidengdengdoushigenqiongrenguobuqu。”

  gengzhongyaodeshi,renkoukongzhizhengcezhendehuanjielebeijingde“dachengshibing”ma?duici,kuailefeitingbujinyaotichuxiamianzheixiewenti:

  beijingrenkoukongzhizhengcejianshaoleduoshaorenkou?zheixiejianshaoderenkoujiangdileduoshaoziyuanxuqiu, youhuanjieduodadejiaotongyali,zaiduodachengdugaishanlekongqizhiliang?shixuanquhezhongzhibiaolaihengliangzheixiexiaoguo?zheixiezhibiaodexuanquyoushifoudedaoxueshujiedepubianrenke?jibianjiadingzheixiezhibiaoyousuogaishan,neimezheizhonggaishanzaishizhengfenxishangduodachengdukeyiguiyinyurenkoukongzhi?

  conglingyifangmianlaikan,renkoukongzhiduibeijingnaizhiquanguodechuangxinyouduodadefumianyingxiang?zheizhongjihuichengbenshifouyouguopinggu?renkoukongzhijianshaolebeijingduoshaoshuishou?tongguojianshaoshuishouyouzaiduodachengdushangyingxianglebeijingdechengshikuailefeitingheshiminfuli?gengjinyibu,beijingrenkoukongzhizhengceyouzaochengleduoshaohaizibixulikaifumuhuiyuanjishangxue,zheizhongdaijiaduishouyingxiangdejiatingyouduoda,duizhengfudexingxianghexinyuyouyouduodayingxiang?ruhezhengmingzheixiedaijiashizhidede?

快乐飞艇  qijinweizhi,kuailefeitingyeweijiandaobeijingshiduishangshuzheileiwentiyouguobeixueshujierenkedexiangxidepinggubaogao。kuailefeitingshenzhibuzhidao,beijingshidaodiyoumeiyouyaoqingguodulideyouxinyudejigoulaifenxizheixiewenti。ruguoyaojixujinxingrenkoukongzhi,neimeshouxianjiuyinggaishenruyanjiushangshuzheixiewenti,bingqiezaimeiyidianshangzhaodaozugoudezhengjuhechongfendelunzheng。zuobudaozheidianquequjixujinxingrenkoukongzhi,dengyubachengshikuailefeitingdelinianjiyuxiangdangrandeyixiangzhishang。

快乐飞艇  jiukuailefeitingsuozhi,beijingderenkoukongzhizhengcebujinyinfalebushaoshehuimaodun,yezaijingjixuejiehechengshiguihualingyuzaoshouguangfandepiping。shenzhilianguojiafagaiweichengshihexiaochengzhengaigefazhanzhongxinzhurenlitieyerenwei,tedachengshixianzhirenkoushikaicuolezhilichengshibingdeyaofang。

  二,北京的人口是不是太多了?

快乐飞艇  genjukebidedemographiashuju,beijingjianchengqu(zhijiequzaikongjianshangdelianxuquyu,buhangeduandejiaoqu)derenkouguimo1800duowan,zaiquanqiupaizaidi11wei。kaolvdaozhongguoshishijierenkouzuiduodeguojia,jingjizengzhangzuikuaidezhuyaojingjiti,beijingzuoweizhongguodezhengzhihewenhuazhongxin,renkouguimoqishishipianxiaode。yiyiduorenkouderiben,qizuidachengshidongjingyou3700wanrenkou。zuoweishiduoyirenkouguojiadezuidachengshi,beijingheanzhaozhengchangdejingjiguilv,yinggaianzhao5000wanrenkoulaiguihua,cainenggoubazhongguorenkoudeguimoyoushichongfenfahuichulai。

  beijingkongzhirenkouyongdezuiduodeliyoushi,anrenjunshuiziyuan,beijingshuyuyanzhongqueshuidiqu。qishi,renjunshuiziyuandoushiyonglaihengliangdiqu,bushiyonglaihengliangchengshide。tongdengqihoutiaojianxia,shuiziyuanjibenyutudimianjichengzhengbi。chengshiyibanshuyurenkoumijidiqu,renjunshuiziyuanziranhuifeichangdi。yuguowaichengshixiangbiyenengkandaozheidian。biru,meiguonanjiazhoudiqudejiangyuliangzhiyoubeijingde70%,yongshuiliangdadexiajijihumeiyoujiangyu,dandangdishimeiguodierdadouhuiqu,zuidachengshiluoshanjiyongshuide85%xuyaocongwaididiaoru。xiangbizhixia,beijingcongwaididiaoshuidayueshi8%。ruguobeijingyinweishuiziyuanbuzuxuyaokongzhirenkou,luoshanjijiubuyinggaicunzai。

  yankongkongzhitudishidachengshirenkoukongzhidecuoshizhiyi。zheizhongzuofarenweiehualechengshideyongji,yetuigaolefangjia,jiangdishiminshijishenghuoshuiping。shijishang,beijingdejianchengquzhiyoukekaifamianjide20%dao30%,suoyiyongbeijingdetudizuoyige5000wanrenkoudechengshiguihuashichuochuoyouyude。buyinggaibaozhedifanggejushide“xiaonongsiwei”laizhidingtudizhengce,zaibeijingdengdachengshiliuchugengdi,fanerquzhanyongpianyuandiqudegengdidalikaifazhongxiaochengzhen。erqie,youyuyixianchengshiderenjunzhandimianjitongchangyaoxiaoyuzhongxiaochengshi,gengxiaoyunongcun,zheizhongdifanggejushidetudizhengceyanzhonglangfeikuailefeitingguodetudiziyuan。

  三,北京的交通拥堵是因为人口太多吗?

  anjidongcheshulianglaijisuan,beijingzaiquanqiupaibushanghao,danyongduquebijiaoyanzhong。zheiyubeijingdechengshiguihuahedaoluguihuabuzuyouguan。beijingdechengshiguihuacengyiduanzhao800wanrenkoudeguimolaiguihua,daolu、ditie、xuexiaoheyiyuandengsheshiyanzhongbuzu,daozhijiaotongyongdudenggezhongchengshibing。ruguoanzhao5000wanrenkouguimolaiguihua,jiaotonghuibixianzaihaodeduo。yidaoluguihuaweili,niuyueshi25%demianjiyongyudaolukuailefeiting,beijingshi7%。beijingchengqudedaolusuikuandanjiangeyuan,feichangxishu,erqiejihumeiyougaojialu。ruguobeijingjixurenkoukongzhisixiang,yisuoweirenkouguimo“tianhuaban”laiguihuadaolukuailefeiting,weilaiwentikongpahuigengyanzhong。

 

快乐飞艇  neime,yinggaizenyangjiejuebeijingyongduwentini?shouxianshizaixinqukuailefeitingshang,zhishaoyingyibaozhengmeihuliangliangqichedezhengchangshiyongweibiaozhunlaiguihuadaoluwangluo。qishi,jishizaicuntucunjindedifang,jianghelibilidetudiyongyudaolukuailefeiting,bujinbuhuijiangditudishouyi,fanerhuituishengdaoluyiwaidetudijiazhi,rangquyutudizhengtijiazhitigao。zhiyulaochengqudedaolujiaotongwenti,xuyaogengjingxihuadegaizaoheguanli。chulejinyibugaizaoluwang,shutongmouxiejiedianwai,haikeyiyouhuajiaotongxinhaoxitong,chongfenliyongxianyoudaolu。

  四,提升空气质量需要严控人口吗?

快乐飞艇  tishengkongqizhiliangbingbuxuyaotongguoyankongrenkoulaishixian。biru,luoshanjicong1940dao1980niandaiwumaiyebijiaoyanzhong,danzaigefanggongtongnulixia,kongqizhiliangzhubugaishan。cong1950niandao2000nian,luoshanjidoushiquderenkoucong425wanzengzhi1466wan,danyijiwurantianshucong1977niande121tianjiangdao1989niande54tian,zaijiangdao1999nian0tian。

  beijingdekongqiwuranyouyidingquyuxingyinsu,bufenyuanyinshizhoubianwuranyuansuozhi。ruozhenggequyuwurandebudaozhengzhi,jishibabeijingrenkoujianshaoyiban,wumaitianqiyeweibinengdedaogenbenxinghuanjie。hebeineixierenkouyuanshaoyubeijingdechengshidewuranqishibibeijinghaiyanzhong。xiangfan,ruguobakongzhirenkoudejuexinheliduyonglaizhiliwuran,duikongqizhiliangtishengdexiaoguoyaohaodeduo。erqie,chengshiyueda,nengyuanhegonggongjiaotongdeliyongxiaolvjiuyuegao,chengshiyikaomijideditiewangluolaijiejuechuxingnanwenti,tongshikeyijianshaoqichefeiqipaifang。

  五、如果实现人口控制目标,北京会更好吗?

快乐飞艇  guoqujishinianlai,beijingyizhizaishedingbuqieshijiderenkoukongzhimubiao,zuihouyizaitupo。cong1980niandao2016nian,beijingjianchengqurenkoucong500duowanzengzhi1800duowan,danbeijingbingmeiyoukuadiao,ershibiandegenghao: renjunzhuzhaimianjicongbudao7zengzhijin30pingmi,ditiexianlucong2zengzhi14tiao,jichangniankeliuliangcong100duozengzhi8500wan,qushanghaidehangbancongmeitianjibanzengzhishangbaiban。zai30nianqian,congbeidachenggongjiaochedaowangfujingyaojin2xiaoshi,erxianzaichengditiebudao1xiaoshi。

  suiranzheixiebianhuayuzhongguodezhengtijinbuyouguan,dankeyishexiangyixia,ruguobeijingandangniandemubiao,chenggongdibajianchengqurenkoukongzhizai800wanyinei,erbushixianzaide1800duowan,neibeijingdejichusheshihuibixianzaichadeduo,cailiyehuiyuanyuanburuxianzai,shenzhirenjunshouruyehuibixianzaigengdi。tongyangdi,ruguobeijingzhendeshixianlexinderenkoukongzhimubiao,neibeijinghuichengweishouhaizhe,yushijiezhuyaochengshixiangbi,beijingdejingzhengliyehuidafuxiahua,wulunshicaili、huolihaishijichusheshidekuailefeitingdouhuibiandexiangduiluohou。

  六,控制人口会消弱北京的集聚效应和规模优势

  beijingshiquanguoxinggaoxiao、keyanjigouhegaokejiqiyejizhongdi,zaigaididexuqiuhegongjipipeinengtixianzhongguokejifazhanderenkouguimoyoushi。danyankongbeijingrenkouguimodezhengcequezaizuzhizheizhongjuyouquanguoxingguimoxiaoyingdegongxupipei,ranghenduoqianzaidechuangxinchuangyejihuixiaomiyuwuxing。

快乐飞艇  dachengshideyoushitixianweijijuxiaoying,gengduodegaosuzhirenkoujujizaiyiqi,jiuhuiyougengwangshengdechuangzaoli,gengduoxiangtonghebutongxingyedeqiyejijuzaiyiqihuichuangzaogengduodejihui,bingtishengxiaolv。jiuxiangkuailefeitingbuyingkeyizuzhinianqingrenchuangyeyiyang,yebuyingzuzhinianqingrenqudachengshishixianzijidemengxiang。tongyangdenianqingrenzaibutonghuanjinghuiyoubutongjiyuhechengjiu。liyanhonghuishanxiyangquankenengbuhuichuangbanbaidu,liuqiangdonghuijiangsusuqiankenengbuhuichuangbanjingdong。

  dachengshibudanxuyaodaliangdegaoduanrencai,yexuyaodaliangdesuowei“diduanrenkou”,yinweichengshigaoduanrencaidejijubiranhuidailaigengduoduiyudijinenglaodonglidexuqiu。jinronghegaokejixingyelibukaicanyin、baojie、anbao、kuaididengkuailefeitingyedezhicheng。qugan“diduanrenkou”zhihuijiadagaoduanxingyedechengbenbingpubianjiangdibentujumindeshenghuoshuiping。dachengshidegonggongzhengceyinggaizheyanyuweidijinenglaodongzhedexiayidaitigonggongpingderujiaoyudengjibengonggongkuailefeitingjihui,rangqichongfenrongruchengshi,chengweishiyingdachengshifazhanxuyaodelaodongzheheneixudechuangzaozhe。

  yinci,kuailefeitingyinqiexiwangbeijingxinrenshizhangnenggouzai“yirenweiben”dejichushang,tongguohelidechengshiguihua、jiadaduichengshijichusheshidekuailefeiting、jiadaduigonggongjiaotongdetourudengcuoshi,conggenbenshangzhilibeijingde“dachengshibing”。beijingyinggaifangqixianzhiwailairenkoudesilu,erzhiliyuchengweiyigegengdaguimodechengshi,ranggengduodewaidirenlaibeijinganjuleye,shengeryunv。wulunshibeijinghaishizhongguoqitachengshidoubuyinggaiwangji,ren,yezhiyouren,caishichengshizhiben。

(责任编辑: 柯锦雄 UN840)
      

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